NEW ROCHELLE, NY — Last Wednesday, Westchester County Executive George Latimer trotted out Westchester County Public Safety Commissioner Thomas Gleason like a show pony to buttress a series of false claims about a non-existent Westchester County Police Department “report” on crime based on incomplete, non-public, partial year, preliminary data.
Normally such a speech would come towards the end of summer or early fall when New York State Department of Criminal Justice Services crime data is complete and final. In 2021 the 2020 crime data was the subject of a speech in August.
So, why did Gleason play along with Latimer and take the unprecedented step of presenting incomplete, non-public, preliminary aggregated monthly crime data for three-quarters of 2021 to claim crime is down?
The answer is simple: a comparison of non-public aggregated monthly data from DCJS when only annual DCJS data is publicly available makes any alternative comparison impossible without the public or press first obtaining all of the monthly data which may or may not be available through a time-consuming Freedom of Information request.
We have asked DCJS to provide that monthly data to make that very comparison.
Latimer laughably claims he picked three quarters of the year because “we did not have year-end statistics for 2021, so we could not get an apples to apples comparison of the full year”.
The claim that the only data available for 2021 was from January to September is contradicted by a DCJS spokesperson who said police agencies are required to report Index Crime data to DCJS within one month after the close of a month: January data by the end of February, for example. Given that, there should be data for some jurisdictions, if not most, for all of 2021.
Talk of the Sound obtains crime data during the month from the New Rochelle Police Department, the Village of Mamaroneck Police Department and the Rye Police Department.
SpotCrime, our crime data partner, collects crime data every day during every month from police departments throughout the United States and geolocates every incident on an interactive map.
Then there is the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program.
At the end of every month police departments throughout the country, including those in Westchester County, file a UCR report with the FBI.
The Westchester Intelligence Center has direct access to the FBI’s UCR data.
The Westchester Intelligence Center, known as the Intel Center or WIC, is a state-of-the-art countywide intelligence and analytical center for Westchester’s law enforcement partners. It brings together the county’s 42 police departments and multijurisdictional police agencies operating here and in neighboring counties in an unprecedented information sharing structure. The WIC’s mission is to support the criminal investigative process for all these agencies through collection, analysis and dissemination of law enforcement intelligence.
WIC hosts “CountySTAT,” a monthly meeting for the DA’s Office, police chiefs and commissioners to review criminal trends and policies.
This raised two questions which we have asked of WCPD and the CE’s Office.
Why is Westchester County Public Safety Commissioner Thomas Gleason sitting in on monthly WIC CountySTAT meetings to review monthly UCR data but supposedly needs to download such data from the DCJS website to create a report for George Latimer?
Can WCPD or the CE explain why the “report” referenced by the CE on Wednesday is based on five-month old data from DCJS rather than fresh FBI UCR data available directly the WIC — and therefore directly to WCPD?
We explained Friday, why Latimer made his crime speech on Tuesday: a cynical political ploy involving lies and contortions to explain a “report” on New York State Department of Criminal Justice Services Index Crime data:
Latimer Petulantly Scolds Critics After Videos of Smash and Grab Robberies at High-end Mall Go Viral
Latimer claimed the Westchester County Police Department downloaded DCJS data which did not happen for the simple reason that there is no 2021 Index Crime data on the DCJS web site. Latimer claimed WCPD analyzed that data which did not happen because no 2021 data was downloaded. Latimer claimed his crime data claims were based on a “report” prepared by WCPD when there was no such report. Further, there is no monthly data on the DCJS website so not only could WCPD not download monthly data for 2021 then sum up the first 9 months of 2021, WCPD could not do that for 2017 data either in order to make a 3/4 year 2017 v 2021 comparison.
Latimer asked the DCJS for aggregate monthly data for the first 9 months of 2017 and the first 9 months of 2021 after Republican Gubernatorial candidate and former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino retweeted viral videos of smash and grab robberies at The Westchester Mall. DCJS provide a data table to Latimer as of February 7, 2022.
When Latimer’s speech was announced early Wednesday, we were immediately suspicious.
We sent an incredulous email to the Westchester County Police Department:
You guys are comparing what???
Jan – Sep 2017 v all of 2021?
In what way is that a meaningful comparison?
Whatever the rationalization offered this is statistically unsound.
What can you tell me?
We sent an email to the Westchester County Executive’s Office:
If you are taking questions, here is mine: on what theory of Statistics is the Westchester County Department of Public Safety comparing January – September 2017 vs. 2021? Why not 2020 v 2021? If 2017, why only part of 2017? And what is the change from 2020 to 2021?
After Latimer’s nonsensical speech we had more questions not less.
Here is what we do know.
After four years of year-to-year declines, key crime statistics in Westchester County increased 6.6% over the last full year for which there is data, from 2019 to 2020.
Here is what Gleason and Latimer do not want the public to know about Crime in Westchester:
TOTAL INDEX CRIME +6.6 : For the last full available year of Westchester County data from the @NYSDCJS, 2019 to 2020, Index Crime is up 6.6% from 9,664 to 10,306.
MURDER +85%: For the last full available year of Westchester County data from the @NYSDCJS, 2019 to 2020, Murder is up +85% from 13 to 24.
HATE CRIMES +74%: For the last full available year of Westchester County data from the @NYSDCJS, 2019 to 2020, Murder is up +74% from 23 to 40.
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT +58.3%: For the last full available year of Westchester County data from the @NYSDCJS, 2019 to 2020, Motor Vehicle Theft is up +58.3% from 468 to 741.
BURGLARY +21.6%: For the last full available year of Westchester County data from the @NYSDCJS, 2019 to 2020, Burglary is up +21.6% from 672 to 817.
LARCENY +3.9%: For the last full available year of Westchester County data from the @NYSDCJS, 2019 to 2020, Larceny is up +3.9% from 6,891 to 7,163.
DOMESTIC VIOLENCE +2%: For the last full available year of Westchester County data from the @NYSDCJS, 2019 to 2020, Domestic Violence is up +2% from 1694 to 1724.
There is no data yet on the worrisome trends in for Gun-Involved Crime for 2020 or 2021.
- Shooting Incidents Involving Injury or Death
- Shooting Victims (Persons Hit)
- Individuals Killed by Gun Violence
- Felony and Misdemeanor Arrests involving a gun
- Parolee Arrests involving a gun
- Probationer Arrests involving a gun
- ROR/Bailed/Bonded Arrests involving a gun