NEW ROCHELLE, NY — Less than a week after Talk of the Sound challenged school board members to start asking tough questions about the implications of a massive decline in student enrollment in the City School District of New Rochelle, — projected to accelerate in the coming years — New Rochelle Schools Superintendent Jonathan P. Raymond issued a statement formally accepting and acknowledging the catastrophic decline for the first time.
The statement comes 24 hours after Talk of the Sound challenged the Board in an email entitled “Past time to deal with the reality of collapse in student enrollment” to formally accept and acknowledge the ongoing decline in student enrollment.
This is the first time since the baseline demographic study by Western Suffolk BOCES was undertaken in 2017 that the New Rochelle Board of Education has formally accepted the projected decline in enrollment rates.
While the press statement is misleading — it ignores the last 7 years of decline since the peak in 2015, it uses as its baseline the 2022 data not the 2015 data, it significantly understates the projected decline out to 2030, it ignores the gap between local and regional decline by dismissing the impact of a spate of violence at New Rochelle High School between 2018 and 2020, changes in policy on grading, class rank and AP/Honors placement, “Black Flight”, and other factors that appear to have accelerated the rate of decline in New Rochelle schools over the past 7 years — it’s a start.
The statement suggests that the board and administration may finally be ready to stop offering half-baked theories as to why the decline is not real and get about the business of confronting the worrisome implications of a large decline in enrollment: the impact on state or federal aid, transportation, food services, staffing, combining districts, or closing schools and more.
The decision to issue the statement appears to be a direct response to reporting by Talk of the Sound and a subsequent dialog between Publisher Robert Cox and Board President Julia Muggia-Ochs as well as fears among board members and school officials that our recent reports would negatively impact homes sales in New Rochelle at the start of the “spring real estate season”.
Related Talk of the Sound Articles
These articles contain links to all past demographics studies over the past decade as well as tables, graphs and detailed analysis.
Catastrophic Collapse of New Rochelle Schools’ Student Enrollment Underway
Demographer Report on Enrollment to New Rochelle Board of Education March 23, 2021 with Board Q&A
NEW ROCHELLE SCHOOLS EXODUS: 4.5% Decline in Pupil Enrollment in 2 Years
Framing a Discussion about Equity in the New Rochelle Public Schools
City School District of New Rochelle Statement
ENROLLMENT STUDY REFLECTS TRENDS IN NY
JAN 21, 2022
Shifting demographics in New York State and in Westchester County – including declining birth rates – could mean a 10% enrollment drop in the City School District of New Rochelle by 2030.
That’s according to an updated long-range planning study the Western Suffolk BOCES’ Office of School Planning and Research conducted for the school district and presented at Tuesday’s Board of Education meeting.
School districts use demographic projections to help drive planning, especially in educational programming, personnel, and facilities management. The City School District of New Rochelle closely monitors New York State population trends, and the data will be used to inform the district’s five-year strategic plan, now in development.
Board of Education President Julia Muggia Ochs said, “The report helps to provide the board with valuable context and confirms local and regional demographic trends. We will use this data to inform our efforts as we embark on our strategic planning, prioritizing our commitment to excellence, innovation, and equity for every member of our school community while optimizing our school district operations in a fiscally responsible way.”
Highlights of the report (percentages rounded):
- Births in Westchester County dropped 28% between 2000 and 2020; births for New Rochelle residents dropped 8% between 2000 and 2019. This may mean fewer students enter kindergarten in the next five years, and, consequently, a smaller group progressing through each grade in subsequent years.
- The number of New Rochelle households with children under the age of 18 dropped from 36% in 2010 to 31% in 2019.
- Peak enrollment was 10,708 in 2014. The district had 701 fewer students in 2021 and is projected to have 964 fewer students by 2031.
- More New Rochelle parents are sending their children to our public schools. Currently, about 14% of local students attend private schools, vs. 18% in 2007.
- Home sales in New Rochelle are strong, up from 350 in 2010 to 618 in 2020.
- While new multi-family housing is under construction or in development in the City of New Rochelle, the impact on the district is likely to be minimal, as many units are studio or one bedroom – meaning it’s unlikely these households will include children. (Confirmation of new housing numbers is pending.)
The presentation is available on the district website, nred.org, in the Board of Education section. Click here.
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