NEW ROCHELLE, NY — On March 23, 2021 Barbara Graziano of Western Suffolk BOCES made a presentation to the New Rochelle Board of Education on the findings in the 2020-2021 Update to the Long Range Planning Document first prepared for the City School District of New Rochelle in 2015.
Graziano explained how COVID-19 is driving the projections of declining enrollment: (1) many parents elected not to enroll their children in Fall 2020 in the hope the children could experience a normal school year in Fall 2021; (2) less people are choosing to have children during the COVID-19 pandemic which will begin to manifest 5 years later, starting in 2026, with smaller Kindergarten classes resulting in smaller cohorts moving through the system over time.
Based on the questions, it appears doubtful that every board member had actually read the demographer report in advance of the meeting.
Most of the Q&A consisted of “magical thinking” questions from board members, either questioning the validity of the data or the methodology used to make projections based on the data: underestimating return of Kindergarten students in Fall 2021, impact of unaccompanied minors crossing the border, that other districts are experiencing similar declines, was the 2020 Census data wrong, what would be the impact of a sudden influx of families moving from New York City due to COVID-19. A few questions were about how the enrollment data is used by the administration or by other districts.
Presentation to New Rochelle Board of Education
Barbara Graziano of Western Suffolk BOCES presents to the New Rochelle Board of Education.
New Rochelle Board of Education Q&A
Western Suffolk BOCES 2020-2021 Update
New Rochelle Board Members Amy Moselhi, Adina Barrios-Brooks, Katie Minaya, Julia Muggia Ochs, and Valerie Williams asked Barbara Graziano questions about the presentation.
Questions by Board Members (Rachel Relkin was absent, Will Ianuzzi and Todd Kern did not ask questions)
Amy Moselhi
Did Western Suffolk BOCES use IDA data to make projections on impact of new downtown development?
Could there be a spike beyond the spike projected by Western Suffolk BOCES as parents enrolled youngsters who were not enrolled in Kindergarten due to COVID-19 in 2020?
Adina Barrios-Brooks
Are their similar declines projected in other districts? Across Westchester? Among similar size districts in New York State?
Could a rise in immigration cause a rise in enrollment?
Katie Minaya
Could the 2020 Census data have undercounted the population?
Could an exodus from New York City to the suburbs cause an increase in students entering the district?
What about impacts from Pre-K?
Julia Muggia Ochs
How does the district utilize the information in the report?
Can the full demographer report be put online?
Valerie Williams
How do other districts utilize this type of data?
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